Multifamily Leads Production Volumes Followed by Office and Self-Storage Assets; Lender Allocations and Sources Remain Abundant as Optimistic Institutional Discipline Emerges for Active 2Q2019
SAN FRANCISCO–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Gantry , the largest independent commercial mortgage banking firm in the western U.S., closed $316.5 million of commercial mortgages during 1Q2019 across 56 transactions. Toward the end of the first quarter, interest rates dropped significantly. Gantry believes the sudden drop in interest rates has contributed to their increased activity and the expectation of much greater production in 2Q2019.
“Underwriting and performance are holding true across our servicing portfolio for the start of 2019 and we are confident in current market fundamentals anticipating a strong 2Q2019,” said Michael Heagerty, principal and CFO with Gantry. “Market analysts are watching for a major cycle correction; however, this correction could be just as likely a series of minor adjustments as we reach a manageable plateau. Barring any unforeseen events that might disrupt market conditions, we move into 2Q2019 with genuine confidence.”
Gantry 1Q2019 commercial mortgage production was led by multifamily, office and self-storage assets in descending order of value of funds placed. Additionally, Gantry’s San Francisco, Los Angeles and Phoenix production offices led the firm’s production totals. Gantry services a national marketplace.
“We begin each year with the MBA’s national conference and then Gantry hosts a lender summit in Phoenix, AZ with more than 40 lenders in attendance,” said Adam Parker, principal with Gantry’s Phoenix production office. “At both events, we heard many of our lenders outline their increased appetite to lend more in 2019 in comparison to 2018. With increased lender allocations, we are projecting the marketplace to be hyper competitive. As lenders compete for business that means it is a good time to be a borrower.”
Additionally, Gantry’s principal leadership offered the following trends as worthy of consideration moving into 1Q2019:
- 2019 Production – Gantry remains optimistic for commercial mortgage production in 2019 barring significant or sustained interruptions to the domestic economy.
- 2019 Interest Rates – Most lender economists anticipate interest rates remain in relative equilibrium as market fundamentals indicate no drastic change in macro-economic conditions. Gantry concurs.
- Diversity – Gender and racial parity and inclusion programs are driving today’s professional best practices in commercial mortgage finance. Gantry can point to a national trend of state by state legislation compelling compliance with this sound business practice.
- Structured Workouts – Local market dynamics and project specific challenges require a focus on navigating distress in even healthy up-cycle markets. Gantry has yet to see a negative shift in the performance of its $12 billion loan servicing portfolio, however best practices require a renewed focus on the new data and proper analysis of the portfolio as commercial real estate economists discuss cycle shift and submarket stresses become apparent.
- Capital Sources – Gantry works with more than 70 lenders each year, and allocations are abundant in 2019. Expect to see growth in capital sources pursuing a finite number of primary market placements, and continued interest in pursuing value in secondary and tertiary markets where underwriting and local market economic fundamentals meet risk assessment models.
- Multifamily – Everyone must live somewhere, and all trends point to a continued lack of housing supporting underlying values, strong performance and new multifamily development. Gantry continues to be a leader in creative solutions for multifamily assets in all phases of the ownership cycle; and continues to source appealing rates and structures for this asset class. Gantry has leadership roles in its major trade associations and is particularly interested in staying on top of upcoming GSE reform efforts.
- Self Storage – This relatively boutique asset class continues to offer compelling fundamentals for underwriting and performance. Gantry expects it to be an active asset class in 2019.